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Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Mixed quarter: Net sales declined 0.7% to $1.58B with two fewer selling days and an Easter timing shift; gross margin compressed 50 bps to 39.7% and operating margin fell 150 bps to 12.0% as SD&A deleveraged; GAAP diluted EPS was $11.87 and adjusted net income was $136.3M, down 16% YoY on an adjusted basis .
  • Volume fell 6.6% (approx. 2.1 pts from calendar), with Sparkling -3.0% adj. and Still -9.0% adj.; Dasani casepack distribution change at Walmart reduced reported volume by 1.3 pts; Coca-Cola Original Taste softened, but zero-sugar and flavors showed growth; Still ex-Dasani grew 1.8% .
  • Cash generation remained resilient (CFO $198.2M) and capex stepped up to $98M; FY25 capex outlook reaffirmed at ~$300M, supporting supply chain optimization and growth investments .
  • Shareholder and operating catalysts post-quarter: declared Q2’25 dividend of $2.50/share (pre-split) and approved 10-for-1 stock split effective around May 27, 2025; announced a $90M Columbus, OH distribution campus investment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Pricing and portfolio execution offset part of calendar and mix headwinds; management said they “successfully executed against our 2025 commercial plan” and are “optimistic” results improve into summer .
    • Sparkling performance breadth: most Sparkling core products (zero-sugar and flavors) showed “solid growth” despite softness in Original Taste; Still ex‑Dasani grew 1.8% led by sports drinks, protein, enhanced water .
    • Strong operating cash flow ($198.2M) with continued reinvestment ($98M capex in Q1) positioning the system for growth; FY25 capex ~$300M reaffirmed .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Calendar and mix pressure: two fewer selling days (~$40M sales, 2.5% impact) and Easter timing weighed on sales and operating income ($10M impact), while a shift toward lower-margin Still compressed gross margin by 50 bps .
    • Volume and deleverage: total volume -6.6%; SD&A rose 2.9% and +100 bps as % of sales to 27.7%, driven by wage inflation and broader cost pressures .
    • Non-cash items reduced GAAP earnings: fair value adjustments to acquisition-related contingent consideration (driven by discount rate changes) dragged GAAP net income to $103.6M vs adjusted $136.3M .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$1.766 $1.746 $1.580
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$698.0 $697.9 $627.1
Gross Margin (%)39.5% 40.0% 39.7%
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$227.1 $218.7 $189.8
Operating Margin (%)12.9% 12.5% 12.0%
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$115.6 $178.9 $103.6
GAAP Diluted EPS$13.18 $20.46 $11.87
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$166.7 $156.7 $136.3
Volume (Standard Physical Cases, Millions)89.9 89.7 76.7

Segment Net Sales

SegmentQ3 2024 ($M)Q4 2024 ($M)Q1 2025 ($M)
Sparkling bottle/can$1,034.7 $1,083.5 $933.8
Still bottle/can$585.5 $531.3 $509.2

Select Q1 2025 KPIs

KPIQ1 2025
Selling days impact on Net Sales≈$40M (≈2.5% of change)
Selling days impact on Operating Income≈$10M
SD&A ($M) and as % of Net Sales$437.3M; 27.7% (+100 bps YoY)
Cash from Operations$198.2M
Capital Expenditures≈$98M

Actual vs. Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 ConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.580 N/A*N/A
EPS (Diluted)$11.87 N/A*N/A

*Consensus values retrieved from S&P Global; no consensus was available for Q1 2025 at the time of retrieval.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025≈$300M (as of Q4’24 release) ≈$300M (reaffirmed in Q1’25 release) Maintained
DividendQ2 2025$2.50/share declared, payable May 9, 2025 Announced
Revenue/Margins/Tax/OpEx/OI&EFY 2025Not provided Not provided

Other Shareholder Actions

  • 10-for-1 stock split effective around May 27, 2025 (record distribution May 23) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: An earnings call transcript for Q1 2025 was not available in the document corpus; themes below reflect management commentary in the press release and prior-quarter releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Pricing and MixPrice actions aided margins; Sparkling mix higher Price actions + stable commodities improved gross margin Annual 2025 pricing partially offset calendar headwinds Stable positive
Sparkling vs. StillSparkling +5.8% sales; Still +1.7% sales; Still volume -9.7% Sparkling +7.7%; Still +8.7% sales in Q4 Sparkling sales -1.9% (Original Taste softness); zero-sugar/flavors grew; Still -0.5%, ex-Dasani +1.8% Mixed: Sparkling normalizing; Still improving ex-Dasani
Calendar/Volume DynamicsExtra selling day in 9M’23; Walmart Dasani shift reduced reported volume +2 selling days in Q4 aided sales and OI -2 selling days (~$40M sales; ~2.5% change) and Easter shift; Walmart Dasani -1.3 pts to volume Calendar reversal hurt Q1
Cost/Inflation & SD&ASD&A +5.8% in Q3; +70 bps of sales SD&A +3.5% in Q4; FY SD&A +10 bps of sales SD&A +2.9%; +100 bps of sales; wage inflation and broader costs Persistent cost pressure
Supply Chain/CapexNashville plant purchase; continued reinvestment FY24 capex $371M; FY25 capex ≈$300M guide Q1 capex ≈$98M; FY25 capex ≈$300M reaffirmed; Columbus $90M campus announced Ongoing reinvestment
Regulatory/LegalNo new items disclosed in Q1 release; standard risk language Neutral

Management Commentary

  • “While our first quarter profit was below prior year, there were a number of positives... We successfully executed against our 2025 commercial plan and generated strong operating cash flow... We are optimistic our results will improve over the balance of the year...” — J. Frank Harrison, III, Chairman & CEO .
  • “Consumers are increasingly selective with their spending, but they continue to respond well to our brand and package offerings… we are pleased with the performance of the majority of our Sparkling and Still brands… optimistic that sales of Coca-Cola Original Taste… will rebound as we move into the summer selling season.” — Dave Katz, President & COO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Earnings call transcript for Q1 2025 was not available in the document corpus; no Q&A themes or clarifications could be extracted. This recap relies on the company’s press release and financial statements .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q1 2025 was unavailable for EPS and revenue at time of retrieval; accordingly, we cannot quantify beat/miss versus Wall Street for the quarter. Actuals: revenue $1.58B and GAAP diluted EPS $11.87 . Consensus values retrieved from S&P Global; no consensus data was returned for Q1 2025.*

Areas where estimates may adjust:

  • Given the calendar headwinds in Q1 (selling days/Easter) and management’s expectation of improvement into summer, models may shift revenue/volume into Q2–Q3 while trimming full-year Still mix margin assumptions due to Q1 product mix and SD&A deleverage .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Underlying demand resilient despite calendar headwinds: Two fewer selling days and Easter shift masked core portfolio health, particularly in zero-sugar/flavors; Still ex-Dasani grew 1.8% .
  • Margin cadence: 50 bps gross margin compression and +100 bps SD&A mix deleveraged operating margin; watch for summer seasonality and Original Taste recovery to improve mix and absorb fixed costs .
  • Non-GAAP lens matters: Large, non-cash fair value adjustments on contingent consideration materially affected GAAP EPS; adjusted net income ($136.3M) provides a clearer view of operating performance .
  • Cash and capex support multi-year story: Q1 CFO of $198.2M and ~$98M capex, with FY25 capex ~$300M, underscore continued supply chain optimization and capacity investments (e.g., $90M Columbus campus) .
  • Channel/package dynamics: Ongoing strength in large retail, multi-serve, and zero-sugar variants should benefit Sparkling; monitor Still portfolio initiatives and Walmart Dasani reporting impact on volume optics .
  • Shareholder framework: Q2 dividend declared ($2.50/share) and 10-for-1 stock split effective around May 27, 2025 could broaden investor access and liquidity .
  • Near-term setup: As calendar reversals abate and summer ramps, narrative likely pivots to volume recovery and mix improvement; focus on SD&A control and elasticity in Original Taste pricing as potential swing factors .